Nigerians, particularly the millions of unemployed, were taken aback on Thursday, August 31, 2023, when the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, announced that the country’s unemployment rate had plummeted from 33.3 to 4.1 percent.
This latest statistic surprised many Nigerians, who believe the jobless rate is rising. Many people yelled blue murder and have been perplexed ever since the news was aired.
The NBS announced that using revised analytical tools for calculating the number of unemployed Nigerians, it arrived at 4.1 percent unemployment; an unprecedented improvement from the 33.3 percent figure reported in March 2021, when the country’s employment index was last released.
The NBS stated that it used the International Labour Organization’s (ILO) standard, which recognized all forms of employment, paid or unpaid, to integrate labor statistics with other yardsticks, such as the Gross Domestic Product, GDP, to arrive at the new figure. This means that anyone working between one hour and 19 hours per week is fully employed.
According to the NBS, the former methodology defines the working-age population as individuals aged 15 to 64, and working between 20 and 39 hours is considered underemployed. The Bureau also claimed that designating people who work between one and 19 hours a day as unemployed was incorrect.
It went on to say that while the unemployment rate is 4.1 percent, underemployment is 12.2 percent, while youth underemployment is 6.9 percent and young unemployment is 18.1 percent.
However, the report elicited varied views. Many saw it as a charade, disconnected from reality on the ground. Many saw it as an insult to Nigerian sensibilities.
Those propagating this narrative believe that the issue of unemployment in Nigeria has progressed beyond the exchange of data. They argue that in order to accurately evaluate the unemployment rate, the government should first count the number of graduates who are hired each year, as well as the number of businesses that are established each year.
In other words, they believe that the government’s primary concern should be how to create employment for the army of unemployed youths, which grows at a geometric rate on a monthly basis, rather than concocting a single figure that has no bearing on the reality of the situation. They were perplexed as to why the NBS chose the one-hour working approach above the 20-hour and 40-hour working norms.
However, some have questioned how anyone could claim that unemployment in Nigeria has decreased when the few enterprises that employ Nigerians have all folded and either closed their doors or gone to other African countries, so putting more people out of work. This is in addition to the millions of graduates from the country’s higher institutions and craftsmen who are all looking for non-existent work.
Others have simply claimed that the Statistician General of the Federation and NBS leader, Samiu Adeyemi Adeniran, was only seeking to curry favor with the Federal Government in order to get re-elected for a second term.
There are also many who believe that the statistic accurately represents the situation according to the ILO criteria.
Nigerians from all walks of life, from organized labor unions to professional bodies, civil society organizations, and experts, among others, have weighed in on the NBS’s latest figure, with some outright dismissing it as misleading and unreflective of the country’s current unemployment crisis.
According to a senior official of the Nigeria Labour Congress, NLC, who requested anonymity, what the NBS did was simply rebase the employment template in order to acquire a lower result for the country’s unemployment rate.
He noted that such a move was counterproductive since it risked eroding the NBS’s credibility in future endeavors.
“The fact is that any statistical data that is not truly representative of the facts on the ground loses its validity,” he explained. We know that the unemployment rate in Nigeria cannot be reducing when factories are closing and leaving the nation due to the challenging operating climate.
“You then wonder, where are the new jobs that have absorbed the hundreds of thousands of graduates who enter the labor market each year?” The truth is that rebasing the employment template to obtain a lower unemployment figure is not beneficial because it may weaken the trust of the NBS’s work in the future.
“We sincerely believe that figures or statistics distributed to Nigerians can only serve their purpose if they align with objective realities on the ground, no matter how bitter they may be.” The notion that anyone earning N1000 per week is employed smells of attempts to gerrymander the unemployment figure to mask the state’s incapacity to perform its commitments to the economy and Nigerians.
“Overall, we may not accept that figure until we conduct thorough investigation into the process that resulted in the outcome.”
According to Chris Onyeka, Assistant General Secretary of the Nigeria Labour Congress, the data did not reflect what is actual and available on the ground, because the NBS unemployment figure could not be considered a genuine working document.
“If the NBS claims to have adopted the ILO’s methodology, who are the stakeholders involved in using that template?” he asked. What were the sources of their information? It’s the same as rebasing the economy to make it appear better than it is.
“The reality is that more Nigerians are unemployed now than ever before.” The data must be examined. We messed up Nigerian governance, including the judiciary and the legislature, which is now an NBS institution.”
Dr James Ekerare Neminebor, President of the Association of National Accountants of Nigeria (ANAN), also condemned the report and called it deceptive.
He added that the administration was only attempting to put everything in place, including job creation, and that committees had only recently been constituted and had yet to begin work.
He questioned how someone could produce an unemployment statistic at the time when the government was still attempting to get things moving, criticizing the NBS data as inappropriate and misleading.
Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprises, CPPE, also stated that the minuscule 20 basis point improvement from the 2.31 percent reported in the first quarter demonstrated the negative consequences of continuing reforms.
According to him, while growth is stronger on a quarterly basis, it is slower when compared to the corresponding quarter of 2022, which was 3.54 percent.
He contended that the economy slowed as a result of shocks from current economic reforms, which influenced energy costs and the Naira currency rate.
“The negative effects of the reforms were disproportionately greater than expected.”
“However, a recovery in the economy is expected in the medium to long term, as current economic distortions are corrected.”
“Meanwhile, there is an immediate positive outcome, which is a marked improvement in the fiscal space of governments at all levels,” he explained.
He highlighted that the reforms were difficult to implement and that the tradeoffs were significant, with terrible societal consequences.
“Given the inevitability of the reforms, implementation necessitates a delicate balancing act and strategic sequencing to ensure an inclusive economic transition,” he said.
“Resolving issues of insecurity, spending priorities, corruption, productivity and competitiveness, regulatory environment, and macroeconomic stability are critical to resuming economic growth and development momentum.”
The Centre for Social Justice, in its own submission, stated that the NBS’s new technique for determining the amount of unemployment and underemployment in Nigeria was antithetical to the country’s reality.
It further claimed that the data in the NBS study were deceptive and could not be used for planning reasons.
The organization criticized the NBS report, arguing that unemployment has been steadily rising since the last report in 2020, which recorded a 33.3 percent jobless rate in Nigeria.
“Since 2020, Nigeria’s economic challenges have increased with galloping inflation and factory closures,” said Eze Onyekpere, Lead Director of the CSJ.
“The entire purpose of a job report is to assist the government in determining whether its plans, policies, and laws aimed at reducing unemployment achieve the desired results.” What is the point of a job report that tells the government that more Nigerians are employed while unemployment is a well-known and well-documented fact?”
He called the NBS’s decision to include persons who labor at least one hour per week or are self-employed in low-productivity activities as employed as ludicrous and absurd.
“This is not an accurate reflection of the Nigerian labor market.” It’s just to gratify a whim. Producing a report that adds no value to the Nigerian people or economy is a waste of taxpayers’ money.”
To bolster his argument that the latest finding was in stark contrast to the current economic challenges confronting Nigerians, he stated: “Before this report, Nigeria’s last unemployment data was released in the fourth quarter of 2020, leaving a substantial gap in our understanding of the employment situation.”
“Previously, the CSJ emphasized the importance of the NBS providing up-to-date employment data for the years 2021 and 2022.” The CSJ understands that a comprehensive job report is an essential tool for government planning and policy review.
“However, the reported unemployment rate of 4.1% raises serious concerns about the methodology’s relevance and accuracy, as well as the significance of the findings to Nigerians’ daily lives.”
He also remarked that the reported rate was incongruent with the economic issues faced by a major percentage of the population, while urging the NBS to review its approach and ensure that it appropriately covers the whole spectrum of Nigerians’ employment challenges.
“It is critical that job reports reflect reality and provide an accurate assessment of the economic landscape.” Only with reliable statistics can the government establish effective plans that deliver on its promises and address the urgent issues confronting our country,” he wrote.
However, a coalition of Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) led by Chief Ogakwu Dominic has asked Nigerians to accept the report since it will assist the government in successfully planning and budgeting.
“For us as civil society practitioners, statistics are more than just numbers; they provide the lens through which we score and judge the performance of those charged with overseeing government business and, by extension, the welfare of Nigerian citizens.”
“One thing is certain: numbers don’t lie, and if we are to get out of the current myriads of challenges confronting our republic and deliver on the dividends of democracy to the least Nigerian, we must see the Nigeria Labour Force Survey, NLFS, report as more than just another routine exercise by a government agency, but as a strategic document for sustainable planning and budgeting with a view to achieving the promises contained in the ‘
“Certainly, statistics play an important role in the planning process by providing valuable insights and information for decision-making, and it is our firm belief that the NLFS report will not fall short of the expectations of millions of Nigerians, who are eagerly awaiting whispers of renewed hope through the content of the document,” the CSOs stated.
Olusanya Olubusoye, a statistics professor at the University of Ibadan and Coordinator of the UI Laboratory for Interdisciplinary Statistics (UI-LISA), suggested that the focus should be on how many jobs were created and how many industries emerged during the period under consideration.
“I have no doubts about the NBS figure because they followed standard practice in terms of methodology, design, and execution.”
“However, I disagree with those who developed the basis for determining whether or not someone is employed.” Is this the same metric used in industrialized nations? The majority of these international organizations create methodologies for developing countries.
“Neither the United States of America nor the United Kingdom place a high value on the unemployment rate. Rather, they discuss the number of new employment produced. So, while evaluating any administration, they consider how many jobs have been produced.
“The emphasis should be on how many jobs have been created, rather than how many people are unemployed.” Jobs should be created in greater proportion to the number of graduates, adolescents, and persons in the population. That is also how they reduced the poverty rate.
“As a result, we also need to know how many jobs are lost.” The unemployment rate should not be of relevance because the definition does not serve us as a developing country. It does not accurately reflect the situation on the ground.
“It does not reflect our people’s reality.” What we need is for the government to tell us how many jobs were created, how many industries were established, and how many youths graduated and found work in the first quarter, rather than using this highly aggregated and deficient definition that deviates from the reality of our environment,” he said.
As the debate over the NBS unemployment figure continues, its importance and credibility will only be realized when new industries emerge and more unemployed graduates and craftsmen find work.
admin
